Stress-testing municipal urban greening plans for climate justice

Using a simulation this study stress-tests the municipality of Vlaardingen’s greening plans. It concludes that urban green space requires structural funding and long-term planning.

Centre of Expertise Global and Inclusive Learning

Vlaardingen

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and more intense, also in The Netherlands. In urban areas, this increases the so-called Urban Heat Island effect, putting vulnerable population groups at increased health risks.  The study, focusing on the municipality of Vlaardingen near Rotterdam, ran thousands of climate scenarios, showing that temperatures in densely built areas can rise by as much as four degrees during heatwaves compared to surrounding areas. The city center and harbor districts are particularly vulnerable to the so-called urban heat island effect.

Purpose of the research

In the study, researchers Arka Bhattacharyya (TU Delft) and Sylvia Bergh (The Hague University of Applied Sciences, research group Multilevel Regulation), together with research assistant Lukas van der Wolf (TU Delft), set out to examine whether current urban greening plans will hold up in a warmer climate by 2050.

Research

In the study, the municipality of Vlaardingen’s ambitious greening plans, including additional trees and shaded spaces, were “stress-tested” using a Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty model, which simulates a wide range of possible futures - from extreme heat to budget constraints and population growth.

Results

The results show that many plans are vulnerable. If maintenance falls behind or dead trees are not replaced in time, the cooling effect quickly disappears. In some scenarios, heat levels even increase despite additional greenery.

According to the researchers, urban green space is comparable to infrastructure: it requires structural funding and long-term planning. A key recommendation to the municipality is therefore to treat trees and parks in the same way as roads and housing.

The research yielded a concise report with main findings and practical policy recommendations for policy makers and practitioners concerned with urban greening plans.

Cooperation partners

Financing 

The project was co-funded by a Resilient Delta Initiative Kick-Starter Grant on ‘Building Heatwave Resilience: A Pathway for Equitable Urban (Re)Developments in Rotterdam’, as well as by the PGO Climate Justice research line.

Duration 

July 2024-April 2026

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Contact

We believe that this kind of study should be repeated with other municipalities in order to help them develop robust long-term urban greening strategies, and we are keen to collaborate with interested parties.

For more information, contact senior researcher Sylvia Bergh at [email protected]